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原標(biāo)題：全球石油短缺不可避免

　　中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)站10月27日?qǐng)?bào)道，分析人士表示，自2015年石油危機(jī)以來(lái)，對(duì)石油新增供應(yīng)的長(zhǎng)期投資不足，以及石油和天然氣公司控制排放甚至“將其封存在地下”的壓力，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球石油產(chǎn)量提前達(dá)到峰值。

　　如果不是因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的事實(shí)：石油需求正從疫情導(dǎo)致的低迷中反彈，最快將在明年創(chuàng)下新的年度平均紀(jì)錄，這對(duì)綠色能源倡導(dǎo)者、凈零議程和整個(gè)地球來(lái)說(shuō)都將是一個(gè)備受歡迎的進(jìn)展。

　　能源轉(zhuǎn)型和政府的各種凈零排放計(jì)劃促使分析人士預(yù)測(cè)，石油需求峰值將比幾年前的預(yù)期更早出現(xiàn)。然而,作為目前油氣投資趨于停滯不前, 全球石油供應(yīng)可能會(huì)比全球石油需求更早達(dá)到峰值，從而造成供應(yīng)缺口，這將導(dǎo)致石油市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)加劇，油價(jià)飆升，并有可能在2030年前后出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性上漲。

供應(yīng)可能在需求之前見(jiàn)頂

　　摩根士丹利研究部本周在路透發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道：“按照目前的趨勢(shì)，全球石油供應(yīng)可能會(huì)比需求更早達(dá)到峰值。”

　　摩根士丹利分析師表示：“地球?yàn)榭梢园踩欧诺奶剂吭O(shè)定了邊界。因此，石油消費(fèi)需要見(jiàn)頂。”

　　世界的問(wèn)題在于，石油消費(fèi)（一廂情愿的想法、投資者的壓力等等）并沒(méi)有見(jiàn)頂。大多數(shù)人估計(jì)，它最早也要到本世紀(jì)末才會(huì)達(dá)到峰值。

　　根據(jù)歐佩克最新的年度展望，該組織預(yù)計(jì)全球石油需求將在本世紀(jì)30年代中期繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)至1.08億桶/天，之后將在2045年之前保持平穩(wěn)。

　　其他一些分析師預(yù)計(jì)，需求將在本世紀(jì)20年代末達(dá)到峰值。

　　然而，對(duì)新供應(yīng)的投資嚴(yán)重滯后于全球石油需求的增長(zhǎng)。

　　2020年疫情危機(jī)過(guò)后，需求再次增長(zhǎng)，與2020年初的一些預(yù)期相反，世界石油消費(fèi)永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)回到疫情前的水平，目前需求距離達(dá)到并超過(guò)這些水平只有幾個(gè)月的時(shí)間。

供應(yīng)缺口將在未來(lái)幾年逼近

　　另一方面，在歐佩克+協(xié)議范圍之外，供應(yīng)似乎受到限制。

　　去年新增投資跌至15年低點(diǎn)。據(jù)著名咨詢(xún)機(jī)構(gòu)伍德麥肯茲今年早些時(shí)候的估計(jì)，去年全球上游投資降至3500億美元，為15年來(lái)的最低水平。

　　盡管油價(jià)高達(dá)80美元，但今年的投資預(yù)計(jì)也不會(huì)大幅增加。這是因?yàn)槌?jí)石油巨頭堅(jiān)持資本紀(jì)律，并承諾凈零排放目標(biāo)，其中一些公司計(jì)劃通過(guò)限制投資和開(kāi)發(fā)非核心、幾乎不賺錢(qián)的新石油項(xiàng)目來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。

　　考慮到石油需求仍將增長(zhǎng)，至少在未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)，對(duì)新增供應(yīng)的投資不足將是中長(zhǎng)期的一個(gè)主要問(wèn)題。

　　盡管進(jìn)行了能源轉(zhuǎn)型，但需求不會(huì)消失，未來(lái)幾年還需要新的供應(yīng)來(lái)取代不斷下降的產(chǎn)量和儲(chǔ)量。

　　歐佩克表示，未來(lái)25年，石油行業(yè)將需要大量投資才能滿(mǎn)足需求。歐佩克表示，到2045年，該行業(yè)將需要累計(jì)11.8萬(wàn)億美元的長(zhǎng)期上游、中游和下游石油相關(guān)投資。

　　法國(guó)道達(dá)爾能源首席執(zhí)行官Patrick Pouyanné本月在能源情報(bào)論壇上表示，如果石油行業(yè)停止對(duì)新增供應(yīng)的投資，到2030年油價(jià)將“飆升至頂點(diǎn)”，一些2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零的設(shè)想表明了這一點(diǎn)。Pouyanné說(shuō)道：“如果我們?cè)?020年停止投資，我們就會(huì)把所有這些資源留在地下……然后價(jià)格就會(huì)飆升。即使在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，這也是一個(gè)大問(wèn)題?！?/p>

　　每桶100美元的油價(jià)不再是一個(gè)離譜的預(yù)測(cè)

　　三位數(shù)的油價(jià)不再像2020年初那樣是一個(gè)離譜的預(yù)測(cè)。

　　美國(guó)銀行大宗商品和衍生品研究全球主管Francisco Blanch預(yù)計(jì)，油價(jià)將在2022年9月觸及100美元，如果今年冬天的氣溫遠(yuǎn)低于預(yù)期，油價(jià)可能會(huì)更早觸及100美元。

　　Blanch在9月底告訴彭博社，盡管過(guò)去18個(gè)月我們看到供應(yīng)嚴(yán)重投資不足，但需求正在恢復(fù)。

　　他說(shuō)：“投資不足的問(wèn)題不容易解決，與此同時(shí)，我們的需求正在飆升。”

　　Blanch在接受彭博社采訪時(shí)表示:“我們正進(jìn)入能源緊縮時(shí)代，我們不想使用煤炭，我們想越來(lái)越少地使用天然氣，我們想擺脫石油?！?/p>

　　Blanch指出，盡管油價(jià)不太可能持續(xù)保持在三位數(shù)，但投資不足已經(jīng)成為該行業(yè)“多年的問(wèn)題”。

　　即使油價(jià)不能維持在每桶100美元，然而，未來(lái)的供應(yīng)緊張仍將推高油價(jià)，導(dǎo)致不可持續(xù)的價(jià)格飆升。盡管氣候活動(dòng)人士希望停止對(duì)新增供應(yīng)的投資，但石油行業(yè)和世界負(fù)擔(dān)不起，因?yàn)槭托枨罄^續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。

　　曹海斌 摘譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　A Global Oil Shortage Is Inevitable

　　Chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis and the pressure on oil and gas companies to curb emissions and even “keep it in the ground” will likely lead to peak global oil production earlier than previously expected, analysts say.

　　This would be a welcome development for green energy advocates, net-zero agendas, and the planet if it weren’t for one simple fact: oil demand is rebounding from the pandemic-driven slump and will set a new average annual record as soon as next year.

　　The energy transition and the various government plans for net-zero emissions have prompted analysts to forecast that peak oil demand would occur earlier than expected just a few years ago. However, as current investment trends in oil and gas stand, global oil supply could peak sooner than global oil demand, opening a supply gap that would lead to increased volatility on the oil market, with spikes in prices, and, potentially, structurally higher oil prices by the middle of this decade and beyond.

　　Supply Could Peak Before Demand

　　“On current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand,” Morgan Stanley’s research department wrote in a note this week carried by Reuters.

　　“The planet puts boundaries on the amount of carbon that can safely be emitted. Therefore, oil consumption needs to peak,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said.

　　The problem with the world is that oil consumption - wishful thinking, investor pressure, and all - is not peaking. Nor will it peak until the end of this decade at the earliest, according to most estimates.

　　OPEC expects global oil demand to continue to grow into the mid-2030s to 108 million barrels per day (bpd), after which it is set to plateau until 2045, as per the cartel’s latest annual outlook.

　　Some other analysts expect peak demand at some point in the late 2020s.

　　Investment in new supply, however, is severely lagging global oil demand growth.

　　Demand is growing again after the 2020 COVID crisis and, contrary to some expectations from early 2020 that the world’s oil consumption would never return to pre-pandemic levels, demand is currently just a few months away from hitting and exceeding those levels.

　　Supply Gap Is Looming In Just A Few Years

　　Supply, on the other hand, looks constrained beyond the OPEC+ deal horizon.

　　New investment last year slumped to a decade-and-a-half low. Last year, global upstream investment sank to a 15-year low of $350 billion, according to estimates by Wood Mackenzie from earlier this year.

　　Investment is not expected to materially pick up this year, either, despite $80 oil. That’s because supermajors stick to capital discipline and pledge net-zero emission targets, part of which some of them plan to reach by curbing investment and developments in non-core little-profitable new oil projects.

　　U.S. shale, for its part, is not rushing this time to “drill themselves into oblivion,” as Harold Hamm said in 2017, as American producers look to finally reward shareholders after years of plowing cash flows into drilling and chasing production growth.

　　Considering that oil demand will still grow, at least for a few more years, underinvestment in new supply would be a major problem in the medium and long term.

　　Despite the energy transition, demand will not just vanish, and new supply will be needed for years to come to replace declining production and reserves.

　　The oil industry will need massive investments over the next 25 years in order to meet demand, according to OPEC. The industry will need cumulative long-term upstream, midstream, and downstream oil-related investments of $11.8 trillion by 2045, OPEC says.

　　Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive at France’s TotalEnergies, said at the Energy Intelligence Forum this month that oil prices would “rocket to the roof” by 2030 if the industry were to stop investments in new supply, as some scenarios for net-zero by 2050 suggest. “If we stop investing in 2020, we leave all these resources in the ground ... and then the price will rocket to the roof. And even in developed countries, it will be a big issue,” Pouyanné said.

　　$100 Oil Is No Longer An Outrageous Prediction

　　A triple-digit oil price is no longer an outrageous prediction as it would have been in early 2020.

　　Francisco Blanch, global head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, expects oil to hit $100 by September 2022, or even earlier if this winter is much colder than expected.

　　Demand is coming back, while we have seen severe underinvestment in supply the last 18 months, Blanch told Bloomberg at the end of September.

　　“The underinvestment problem cannot be solved easily, and at the same time we have surging demand,” he said.

　　“We are moving into a straightjacket for energy, we don’t want to use coal, we want to use less and less gas, we want to move away from oil,” Blanch told Bloomberg.

　　While oil is unlikely to sit at triple digits for a sustained period of time, underinvestment has become “a multi-year problem” for the industry, Blanch noted.

　　Even if oil doesn’t stay at $100 a barrel, a supply crunch down the road would nevertheless move the floor under oil prices higher and lead to unsustainable price spikes. As much as climate activists want a stop to investment in new supply, the industry and the world cannot afford it because oil demand continues to grow.